What will the 905’s low density subdivisions look like in fifteen to twenty years from now? My prediction is that factors such as vehicle running costs, poor public transit, growing tax and utility costs, decreased funding for social services, local education limitations, long job commute times, living preferences, environmental issues and simply being located on the edge of the city will make the economic viability of living in these areas questionable in the coming decades?
In fifteen to twenty years the 905’s low density areas will have felt the full effects of “thinned out” service delivery and infrastructure funding. Equally, the cost of what little services they do get will be much higher due to poor economy of scale factors. Located on or near the “fringe” (the greenbelt border) of an expanded Toronto they will become areas to avoid as they now resemble dilapidated projects; abandoned by all, home to the unemployed and the working poor; and incubators of crime.
To avoid this fate, sooner or later the 905’s low density subdivisions homeowners will have to be bought out and their houses torn down to make way for high density, economically sustainable development. Over the coming years the pressure to re-develop huge swaths of low density land will become impossible to resist as well as being an economic imperative (either this or a convenience in having the poor pushed out to the 905 fringe areas). This I see as the unspoken truth about urban sprawl.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
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